Best shot to win seven? Sharapova
With world No. 1 Justine Henin-Hardenne out, the Australian Open is Maria Sharapova's for the taking. Keith Hawkins breaks down the women's draw.
If the past is any indication, Justine Henin-Hardenne's withdrawal from the Australian Open will open up one spot in the semifinals. The world's No. 1 player (who won't be in Melbourne because of "personal family reasons") was a finalist in all four Grand Slams in 2006, won the year-end championships and advanced to at least the semifinals in each of her three previous appearances at the Australian Open.
Does any one player benefit from Henin-Hardenne's absence?
"All the top players will benefit because Henin-Hardenne is one of the favorites to win every tournament she enters," ESPN analyst Mary Joe Fernandez said. "This is a big opportunity for the rest of the field."
So with the Australian Open starting Sunday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2), which players have the best chance to win seven matches in 14 days?
Top Four Seeds
• No. 1 Maria Sharapova: She's the top seed of a Grand Slam for the second time in her career (the other: 2005 U.S. Open). The 19-year-old Russian reached the semifinals in 13 of 15 events she entered last year; in Grand Slam play, Sharapova has advanced to the final four in six of the last eight events. She also has a chance to regain the world No. 1 ranking for the first time since October 2005, depending on her result.

Sharapova's draw could be very dangerous after the third round -- a potential matchup against No. 13 Ana Ivanovic looms in the Round of 16; she could face fellow Russian and 12th seed Anna Chakvetadze in the quarterfinals; and if she gets that far, No. 4 Kim Clijsters, Li Na or No. 6 Martina Hingis could be waiting for Sharapova in the semis.
• No. 2 Amelie Mauresmo: The defending champion took her game to that next level in 2006. Based on history, the Frenchwoman is a lock to reach the quarterfinals in Melbourne: In her last 16 Grand Slam appearances, Mauresmo has reached the round of eight 14 times. At the Australian, she has done no worse than the quarterfinals since 2002.
On paper, Mauresmo has a favorable draw and should reach the quarters, where No. 7 Elena Dementieva or No. 10 Nicole Vaidisova could be waiting.
• No. 3 Svetlana Kuznetsova: She came into the 2006 Australian as the 14th seed and reached the Round of 16 before losing to the No. 1 seed Lindsay Davenport. She did reach the final at Roland Garros in 2006, then lost at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in the third and fourth rounds, respectively.
Kuznetsova will likely face a fellow Russian in the third round (either Maria Kirilenko or Elena Likhovtseva) followed by Russian-born Tatiana Golovin in the Round of 16. If she makes it to the quarterfinals, she could face yet another Russian, No. 5 Nadia Petrova, or the hottest player on the WTA Tour, 11th-seeded Jelena Jankovic.
• No. 4 Kim Clijsters: You can pencil in the Belgian to reach the quarterfinals, and not just because this is what she's calling her final year on tour. Clijsters reached the final four in all three Grand Slam events she entered in 2006 (she missed the U.S. Open with a wrist injury) and has reached at least the semifinals in each of her last four Australian Open appearances. If she reaches the quarterfinals, No. 9 Dinara Safina, Li Na or Hingis will stand between her and the final four.

History also tells us that it's unlikely the top four seeds will all reach the semifinals -- it's happened only four times at the Australian Open in the Open era (1969, 1970, 1974, 1993). Two players seeded outside the top 10 who could reach the semifinals are Jankovic and Chakvetadze. Jankovic's momentum from the end of 2006 has carried over to the start of 2007. She won the season-opening event in New Zealand and lost to Clijsters in the final of the Medibank International, while 19-year-old Chakvetadze started 2007 by winning the Moorilla Hobart International on Friday, the third title of her career.
What about the American women? This time last year in Melbourne, Davenport was the top seed and compatriots Venus and Serena Williams were the 10th and 13th seeds, respectively. A year later, there's not a single American woman seeded, the first time that's happened at the Australian Open since 1976. Davenport is expecting her first child and Venus Williams is out with a wrist injury. Serena Williams lost in the third round last year, a fate she might meet again in 2007. She faces No. 27 Mara Santangelo in the first round; if she beats the Italian, Williams likely would face Michaella Krajicek in the second round to set up a potential matchup with Petrova in the third round.
Predictions
The No. 1 seed has reached the final in seven straight years. Make it eight in a row, with Sharapova beating Clijsters in one semifinal. Jankovic might be better than her No. 11 seeding and will reach the semifinals, where she'll face the defending champ Mauresmo. But Jankovic's run will end there and Mauresmo will get the chance to defend her title against the 19-year-old Sharapova. With Henin-Hardenne's absence, Sharapova officially begins to impose her will on the rest of the women's tour, winning her first Australian Open title, second straight Grand Slam and third major of her career.
Keith Hawkins is the tennis editor for ESPN.com.
Dates: Jan. 14-28