Updated: January 30, 2009, 4:29 AM ET

Venerable Federer hoping to contain never-say-die Murray

Who will win the U.S. Open men's final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray? Our experts duke it out.

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NEW YORK -- Ostensibly, Roger Federer should have an easier time in the U.S. Open final than he did at the French Open or Wimbledon, considering his nemesis, Rafael Nadal, won't be his opponent. Federer has been mired in a tepid season all year but has shown signs of revitalization this fortnight. Having been relegated to No. 2 in the world, a U.S. Open championship would be his ultimate vindication.

However, his opponent, Andy Murray, has made instrumental strides since Wimbledon, evolving from a petulant, underachieving player to a viable threat. Ending Nadal's remarkable Grand Slam run was no aberration. The Scot won his first career Masters Series event in Cincinnati this summer and has catapulted to the No. 4 ranking in the world.

So who wins? Bonnie D. Ford and Greg Garber put their clairvoyance on the line and make cases for each player.

Who will win the U.S. Open final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray?
ROGER FEDERER

Roger Federer
Federer
Actions speak louder than words everywhere, including the tennis court, but it's worth paying attention to some of the things Roger Federer said after a crisp U.S. semifinal win over Novak Djokovic.

Federer isn't shy about talking about his place in history, but right now he's intent on the near horizon. "At the moment, the focus is trying to defend my title here and get my fifth [U.S. Open],'' he said. "I think that's what it's about right now.'' He called it "huge,'' which may be an understatement given his pride and the almost impossibly high standard he sets for himself.

Experience in Grand Slam finals may be overrated in some ways. There's a long list of first-time finalists who have hoisted championship trophies, from One-Slam Wonders to venerated champions like Bjorn Borg, Boris Becker, Pete Sampras and Federer himself. But none of them ever had to go up against a 12-time Slam winner, and a highly motivated one at that.

Don't expect Murray to fold, but do expect Federer to raise his already admirable level another notch. Although he's had a raggedy hard-court season, he still has the mental edge over anyone not named Nadal in this venue.

His serve is a more reliable weapon than Murray's, and as the cliché goes, it's the one shot an opponent can't do anything about when it's done right. Federer can handle Murray's kaleidoscopic changing speeds during rallies, but look for him to try to close out points as quickly as he can to rob Murray of the never-say-die quality he has, deservedly, because of his terrific movement.

Federer has played his way into this tournament instead of playing above the field as he did for much of the previous four years. But the end result in New York will be the same. He'll have another unique accomplishment in his back pocket and finally will be able to lift his gaze and look into the distance again.

-- Bonnie D. Ford

ANDY MURRAY

Andy Murray
Murray
I'll grant you, it's a nice little story.

No. 1-ranked player in the world gets leveled by mononucleosis, loses badly in the French Open final to Rafael Nadal, loses again (this time, spectacularly) in the Wimbledon final, then comes back, against most odds, as the No. 2-ranked player to win the U.S. Open -- his fifth title in a row.

Nice. Problem is, it isn't going to happen.

Roger Federer remains the overwhelming favorite to win Monday's men's final. Thanks to Hurricane Hanna and his willing scheduling accomplices at the USTA, Federer finished his semifinals match with Novak Djokovic some 28 hours and 8 minutes earlier than Andy Murray.

While Murray was grinding his guts out against Rafael Nadal, perhaps playing the best set of his life in his biggest moment, Federer was chilling. He had a practice hit and enjoyed a gorgeous day. Bonnie, I can see how you'd pick Federer over Murray. All signs point to a blowout by the well-rested, four-time defending champion, but …

… I beg to differ.

Look at the tear that Murray is on. After several years of falling short of the greatness predicted for him, something funny happened: The Scot grew up. Now 21, Murray reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon -- his first Grand Slam quarter -- where he lost to Nadal. Then he made the semis here, another career milestone, by beating Juan Martin Del Potro, the hottest player in the game, and then took down Nadal (a winner in 54 of his past 56 matches) on Sunday.

Sure, he'll be a little fatigued when he steps on the Arthur Ashe court Monday, but he'll have had 23 hours to recover from the testy 15 games it took to complete the match with Nadal. Did you see the look on Murray's face after he beat Nadal? The kid is fearless.

One more thing: Murray has played Federer three times. After losing to the Swiss three years ago, he's beaten him the past two times -- including earlier this year in Dubai. Give Murray his first Grand Slam, and get ready for a zany, wide-open 2009 season.

-- Greg Garber

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